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A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."