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Well. On one hand, Australia's protracted campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries feared a conference obstructed from the leadership if his administration led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and deliver an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.