🔗 Share this article

Within the widespread uncertainty regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The move to assault another independent nation and abduct its leader – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He believes that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and ongoing controversies increase his appetite for distraction.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. The international community may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, considering the potential next target.